Premier League bets: support Brighton’s competitive performance at Chelsea | Football news

Our tipster Jones Knows deploys his classic theory of backing Brighton to be competitive against the top teams and backing that shot 4/1.

How did our bet go on Boxing Day?

The speculative 22/1 double on goals, cards and corners at Manchester City against Leicester and Newcastle and Manchester United failed. We had a good run for our money in the City game where we only missed one card to land that leg as it was a corner kick, a festival of goals and cards. St James’ Park turned into an entertaining affair, but a low number of turns meant my logic was wrong and ultimately wrong.

I have a much more confident selection to attack on Wednesday night. It’s time to double the stakes.

P + L = +35

2pts on Brighton for having 10+ shots and with a +2 handicap against Chelsea (4/1 with Sky Bet)

I’m very pro-Brighton in this one. It stems from my theory that Graham Potter’s men are fit to play the best teams. And they owe me a result from the start of the season when we backed them with a +2 handicap at Liverpool and for them to have 10 or more shots. They drew 2-2. Beautiful. And had nine hits. Ouch.

The market is far too Chelsea-oriented for this one. It should be a very tactical affair with the two teams vying for control of the game thanks to possession and expert organization at the back where chances are hard to come by for the opposition. This shows through the defensive processes of both teams over the past 12 months in the Premier League. If you calculate the figures since the appointment of Thomas Tuchel in January, Chelsea (0.8) and Brighton (1.02) respectively occupy second and third places in the classification of goals against expected by 90 minutes, only Manchester City (0, 7) is doing better.

It is this defensive structure shown by Brighton that provides them with the platform to constantly trouble the top ranked teams in the Premier League. The 2-2 draw with Liverpool at Anfield earlier this season is a perfect example. The big caveat with Brighton is that they are a very unreliable team in front of goal making an immediate victory hard to imagine in this one despite the 8/1 with Sky Bet available.

However, in their last 23 games against teams that finished in the Premier League‘s top nine last season, Brighton have lost just three games by more than one goal. Included in that run was a 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge last season where Graham Potter’s side had more shots and corners than their top four pursuers. This means that I am more than happy to support Brighton with a +2 handicap start to the goal which means we will win if Brighton wins, draws or loses by a goal.

As well as having a positive outlook on Brighton’s chances in the match markets, I also want to invest in the number of shots they have. Potter’s men have little fear when tasked with confronting the big boys. In their last two matches with Man City, Potter’s side have averaged 14.5 shots per 90 minutes. And in five games against Liverpool, Brighton has averaged 11.5 shots per 90 minutes and that’s a good 12 shots per 90 minutes against Chelsea in four games under Potter.

When you add up all the evidence, that makes 4/1 with Sky Bet on Brighton having more than 10 hits and having a +2 handicap a very attractive price to attack.